# Demographic Trajectory and Future Vulnerability

Countries ranked by demographic shift (2000–05 → 2018–24).

## Fastest Aging Countries (Risk Profile Shifting)

| Country | Current old_dep | Δold_dep | Δyouth_dep | Projected old_dep 2040 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| VAT | 0.221 | +0.4933 | -0.0138 | 0.714 |
| MDV | 0.045 | -0.0162 | -0.3549 | 0.029 |
| MCO | 0.044 | +0.3691 | +0.0357 | 0.413 |
| PRI | 0.185 | +0.1638 | -0.1485 | 0.349 |
| CPV | 0.050 | +0.0021 | -0.3060 | 0.052 |
| VIR | 0.223 | +0.1995 | -0.1082 | 0.422 |
| BTN | 0.049 | +0.0162 | -0.2891 | 0.066 |
| LAO | 0.137 | +0.0047 | -0.2938 | 0.141 |
| WLF | 0.042 | +0.1026 | -0.1907 | 0.145 |
| MAF | 0.199 | +0.1851 | -0.0983 | 0.385 |
| ALB | 0.238 | +0.0984 | -0.1827 | 0.337 |
| HND | 0.137 | +0.0090 | -0.2717 | 0.146 |
| NPL | 0.721 | +0.0257 | -0.2538 | 0.747 |
| GTM | 0.407 | +0.0027 | -0.2742 | 0.409 |
| SHN | 0.052 | +0.2271 | -0.0443 | 0.280 |
| GLP | 0.183 | +0.1665 | -0.1047 | 0.349 |
| COM | 0.094 | -0.0048 | -0.2739 | 0.089 |
| KHM | 0.144 | +0.0333 | -0.2344 | 0.177 |
| MTQ | 0.019 | +0.1776 | -0.0897 | 0.197 |
| BLZ | 0.056 | -0.0018 | -0.2611 | 0.054 |

## Still-Young Countries (Elevated Reversal Risk)

| Country | Current youth_dep | Δyouth_dep | Current old_dep |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| THA | 1.006 | -0.1094 | 0.044 |
| SYR | 0.963 | -0.1703 | 0.051 |
| CIV | 0.947 | -0.1421 | 0.041 |
| IND | 0.936 | -0.1843 | 0.049 |
| CPV | 0.931 | -0.3060 | 0.050 |
| CZE | 0.917 | +0.0248 | 0.048 |
| EST | 0.904 | +0.0108 | 0.061 |
| GRD | 0.865 | -0.2088 | 0.054 |
| SHN | 0.858 | -0.0443 | 0.052 |
| COG | 0.853 | -0.0160 | 0.039 |
| MCO | 0.824 | +0.0357 | 0.044 |
| KAZ | 0.822 | +0.0694 | 0.061 |
| BTN | 0.821 | -0.2891 | 0.049 |
| PRT | 0.814 | -0.0322 | 0.048 |
| TUV | 0.805 | -0.1058 | 0.056 |

*Projections assume linear extrapolation of 2000–2024 demographic trends. Based on 237 countries with data in both periods.*